AI-curated politics prediction market forecasts. Browse live odds and key themes.
Global political markets are pricing elevated uncertainty around upcoming elections in major democracies, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and central bank policy pivots. Historically, political prediction markets outperform traditional polling in aggregate accuracy — watch for consensus shifts in the weeks before scheduled votes. Key risk events include NATO positioning, US Congressional scheduling, and emerging-market election cycles.
Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?
Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?
Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?
Will the U.S. Supreme Court docket for Danco Laboratories v. Louisiana (No. 25A1207) show any new docket entry dated between May 18, 2026 and May 30, 2026 (inclusive)?
Who will win the Democratic nomination in the IA-02 House primary? — Clint Twedt-Ball
Who will win the 2026 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? — Jared Hudson
Will Alaska voters approve Alaska Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting and nonpartisan primaries in the state?
On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?
Who will win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Alfredo Barnechea
Who will win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Roberto Chiabra
How many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms? — ≤47 and ≤217
Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028?
Will CDU win the most seats in the Baden-Württemberg Landtag election?
Trump's DDHQ job approval rating on May 22? — 41.0% to 41.2%
How many "truths" will Trump post from May 21 through May 27? — 141 to 160
Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?
Will UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have a higher approval rating than Japanese Prime Minister Shiguru Ishiba on April 1, 2025?
Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?
What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3? — 40.2% to 40.4%
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark?
Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?
Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?
Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?
Who will win the most votes in the CA-13 House primary? — Vin Kruttiventi
Who will win the most votes in the CA-45 House primary? — Tom Vo
Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?
Will Nigeria enact legislation exempting real estate transactions from VAT before July 1, 2025?
[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?
Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president of South Korea by April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?
Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?
Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?
Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate nomination? — John Cornyn
Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee? — Andrew Oldham
Will Trump say "Pulitzer" in May?
Who will win the 2026 Arizona Republican nomination for governor? — Karrin Taylor Robson
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?
Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?
Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?
Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?
[PRACTICE] Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Mississippi? — Democratic
Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?"?
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Who will win the 2026 Minnesota Democratic nomination for governor? — Amy Klobuchar
Will Chris Murphy be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
