Question 1

What climate and weather events do prediction markets cover?

Accepted Answer

Climate prediction markets cover hurricane season intensity, annual temperature anomaly records, wildfire acreage milestones, Arctic sea ice extent, and climate policy decisions such as carbon pricing legislation. Metaculus is the most active platform for long-horizon climate forecasting.

Question 2

Are there prediction markets on hurricane season forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Yes. During Atlantic hurricane season (June–November), Polymarket and Manifold list markets on the number of named storms, Category 4+ landfalls, and specific storm tracks. These markets resolve based on National Hurricane Center official counts.

Question 3

Do prediction markets cover global warming and temperature milestones?

Accepted Answer

Metaculus tracks long-horizon climate questions such as "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?" and "When will global average temperature exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels?". These are forecast-oriented questions with multi-year resolution windows.

Question 4

Can I find prediction markets on climate policy and emissions targets?

Accepted Answer

Climate policy markets cover events like COP summit agreements, national emissions target revisions, and legislative votes on carbon pricing. Manifold and Metaculus are the main venues for these longer-horizon policy questions.

Question 5

Where can I find wildfire and extreme weather prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket lists wildfire acreage and extreme weather event markets during peak seasons. Metaculus takes a longer-term view with probability-of-occurrence forecasts for various climate risk scenarios. AGON aggregates both under the climate_weather_env domain.