Question 1

What corporate events do prediction markets cover?

Accepted Answer

Corporate prediction markets cover earnings beats or misses, M&A announcements, CEO changes, layoff events, IPO valuations, and regulatory antitrust decisions. Polymarket is the leading platform for high-volume corporate event markets.

Question 2

Are there prediction markets for company acquisitions and mergers?

Accepted Answer

Yes. When a major acquisition is announced — such as a tech merger under regulatory review — Polymarket often lists "Will the deal close by X date?" or "Will regulators block the acquisition?" markets. These can attract significant volume during review periods.

Question 3

Can I find earnings prediction markets for major companies?

Accepted Answer

Earnings markets ("Will Company X beat EPS estimates for Q2 2025?") appear on Polymarket and Manifold around quarterly results season. Meta, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon typically have the most liquid earnings markets.

Question 4

What prediction markets exist on CEO appointments and resignations?

Accepted Answer

Leadership change markets appear when a major executive departure is rumored or when a company is known to be searching for a new CEO. Resolution is typically on the date a new appointment is publicly confirmed by the company.

Question 5

Are there prediction markets on startup funding rounds and valuations?

Accepted Answer

Manifold hosts some startup and venture capital prediction markets, though liquidity is generally low compared to public-company corporate event markets. Questions typically focus on whether a known company will raise its next round within a specified timeline or at a specific valuation.