Question 1

What macro economic events do prediction markets cover?

Accepted Answer

Macro prediction markets focus on events like Federal Reserve rate decisions, CPI inflation readings, GDP growth releases, jobs reports, and recession probability over specific horizons. These markets let economists, traders, and analysts express and monetize macroeconomic views.

Question 2

How accurate are prediction markets at forecasting interest rate decisions?

Accepted Answer

Prediction market implied probabilities for Fed rate decisions closely track CME FedWatch futures data and tend to be well-calibrated for the next 1-2 meetings. Accuracy degrades further out on the horizon due to greater uncertainty. Markets often front-run official FOMC statements by pricing in cuts or hikes days in advance.

Question 3

Can prediction markets forecast recessions?

Accepted Answer

Recession probability markets exist on Polymarket and Metaculus and have historically tracked consensus economist surveys. Like all forecasting tools they are imprecise on exact timing, but they provide a real-time, market-implied recession probability that updates with each data release.

Question 4

Where can I find prediction markets on inflation and CPI data?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket regularly lists "Will US CPI be above X% in month Y?" markets around monthly BLS release dates. Metaculus hosts longer-horizon inflation questions with detailed community reasoning. AGON surfaces both under the economy_macro domain.

Question 5

Are there prediction markets for unemployment and jobs reports?

Accepted Answer

Yes. US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate markets appear on Polymarket and Manifold around the monthly BLS release schedule. These markets typically see the bulk of their volume in the 24-48 hours before the data release.

Economy & Macro Markets