Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Will a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?

Will Trump spend at least one month in prison during his lifetime?

Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?

If AI safety is divided by left/right politics in the next 5 years, will the left be more pro-regulation than the right?

When will Warren Buffett stop being Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive officer?

⌛What will happen in my lifetime?

Will Elon Musk ever be President of the United States during his lifetime?

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Will UFC Freedom 250 End Early due to a Disruption/Safety Concern?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Is John Fetterman more than one person?

It is possible to write standard C++ with memory safety guarantees similar to Rust by the end of

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...

Will the wild population of Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle (Rafetus swinhoei) become Extinct by 2100?

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2025?

Will any rider in the 2026 Tour de France use an airbag safety system during the race?

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?

Will the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle (Rafetus swinhoei) become extinct in the current century?

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Will we ever discover alien civilizations in our lifetime?

Will Warren Buffet live to 100?

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Is AI Safety a grift?

Will Barry Bonds be admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime?

Is slowing down AGI good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Is RLHF good for AI safety? [resolves to poll]

When will the first major U.S. presidential candidate make AI safety part of their platform?

Will I vote for a national-level Republican in my lifetime?

Will "On Fleshling Safety: A Debate by Klurl and Tr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will John Fetterman Leave the Democratic Party Before the 2026 Midterms?

Will BRKA hits $1,000,000 before Warren Buffett dies?

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Will "Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

AI Safety Research Futarchy: Goal Crystallisation

Will trump ever receive any federal pardon in his lifetime?

AI Safety Research Futarchy: Exploring more metacognitive capabilities of LLMs

AI safety Stock (Permanent)

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2035?

What will be Senator John Fetterman's official party registration on January 1, 2028?

Will John Fetterman stop being senator before the 2028 election?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

How much will Berkshire Hathaway stock change from the day before Warren Buffett dies to the day after he dies?

OpenAI lifetime ChatGPT subscription price?

AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2040?

AI Safety Research Futarchy: Model Organisms Resisting Generalisation

Will human fetuses created without egg or sperm (eg stem cells) be used to birth human babies by Dec 1, 2027

Will any rider in the 2027 Tour de France use an airbag safety system during the race?

Will George W Bush endorse the Republican candidate for president again in his lifetime?

Will José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente win the nobel prize in his lifetime?

I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Will one of my descendants win a Nobel in my lifetime?

Will Warren Buffett die within 1 year of formally retiring?

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

Will "My AGI safety research—2025 review, ’26 plans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030

Will the US Chemical Safety Board be eliminated by 2028?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?

Will Graham Platner be the next fetterman?

Will Pete Buttigieg be president in his lifetime?

Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Which YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026

Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Who will John Fetterman endorse or suggest voting for in the Maine senate election?

Will AI safety and regulation be mandatory training courses for students working with AI by the year 2035 under Federal Law?

will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Will "theory uplift differentially benefits safety ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Third-wave AI safety needs sociopolitical thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?

Will "Legible vs. Illegible AI Safety Problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?

Will "AI safety undervalues founders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?

Will "Cognitive Security as an AI Safety Cause Area" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

If Elon goes to space within his lifetime, will he go past Low Earth Orbit?

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Which of these AI Safety Research Futarchy projects will get Conf Accepted, if chosen?

Will season 3 of The Rehearsal be about airline safety?

Will "Re: recent Anthropic safety research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Will "The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2030?

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2026?

Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026?