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WC 2026BTC$63,911.81+2.94%ETH$1,699.09+3.92%SOL$67.29+3.40%WC 2026Prediction markets related to Humanity (H). Browse and compare live odds across all platforms.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2028?
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2035?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2027?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2032?
Humanity survives a Great Filter
Will humanity survive until 2100?
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2033
Will Humanity Obstruct the Sun before 2030?
If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
If ASI is achieved and doesn't wipe out humanity, will natural death be cured within 5 years?
Will Steppe Nomads wipe out humanity before 2027?
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2031?
When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
Will AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?
Will Zombies wipe out humanity before 2100?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2050?
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity before 2030?
Will I wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2200?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Will anything other than AI wipe out humanity by 2100?
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it begin mining the moon within a year?
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Did humanity discover life on K2-18b?
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it be able to survive these temperatures within a year?
Will AI wipe out humanity before 2050, and if so when?
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market be above 5% on January 1, 2029 12:00AM EST?
If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?
Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?
In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2525?
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
Will humanity build a Dyson Sphere/Swarm before 2040?
By EOY 2050, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?
Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
Will humanity still exist in 2100?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2700?
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Would Trump let AI wipe out humanity? (2030)
Will humanity wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 9595?
Will sentient cabbage wipe out humanity by 2100?
Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
If humanity gets wiped out by 2033, will it be because of AI?
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Will rationalussy wipe out humanity by 2100?
Will Humanity set foot on Mars by 2030?
Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?
Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)
By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
Will IA wipe out humanity by the year 2100?
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2100?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2027?
Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100?
If entire humanity were to trust a single nation for total control of all nukes, who would win such a global poll?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2600?
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars?
Will Global Warming Wipe Out Humanity By 2100?
Will humanity wipe out AI?
By EOY 2100, will humanity have sent a probe to another star system and received meaningful info?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2028?
Conditional on humanity reaching Kardashev stage 2, what will be the primary source of energy when it does?
Will "the fate of humanity depend on" spaceethics.org/elifism "already in a few years"?
Will AI wipe out humanity by the year 2080
Will Elon Musk take humanity to Mars before December 2034?
will humanity make contact with another intelligent life form / civilisation?
Will humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Will a supernatural event wipe out humanity by 2100?
In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 80% by what year?
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 60% by what year?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?
Will less than 2% of humanity's electricity production come from oil before 2030?
Lakers vs. Thunder
Lakers vs. Thunder
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings
XPT Up or Down - 1 hour
Will chess be solved by 2040?
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings
When will Trump serve time?
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Will WW3 happen before GTA6?
Gold Up or Down - 1 hour
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?
Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ducks vs. Golden Knights
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
Hurricanes vs. Flyers
XPT Up or Down - 1 hour
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner
Mihawk Stock
Wild vs. Avalanche
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadenasso
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Golden Knights vs. Ducks
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Zherka Stock
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Korpatsch
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07?
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Shevchenko
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Farha stock (permanent)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8?
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Magdalena Frech
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs