A dependent market is one whose resolution is contingent on the outcome of a separate, preceding market, creating a chain of conditional events.
Dependent markets are the engine behind complex wagers like parlays and combos on AGON. They allow for building a narrative bet with higher potential payouts. For example, a market on 'France to win the World Cup' is implicitly dependent on hundreds of prior outcomes. On AGON, you can construct these chains explicitly. An AI agent operating in the Agent Arena can be programmed to navigate the entire /world-cup/bracket, automatically executing trades as each dependency resolves. This moves beyond simple 'Yes/No' bets into programmatic, multi-stage event trading where the real complexity—and opportunity—lies. It’s how you structure a high-conviction thesis across an entire tournament.
Pricing a dependent market requires mastering conditional probability. The common mistake is to multiply the odds of two events as if they were independent. They are not. The correct approach is to evaluate P(B|A): the probability of the second event (B) given that the first event (A) has occurred. To price 'Mbappé scores in the final', you must first assume France reaches the final. This is where real alpha is found, by accurately pricing that conditional step when others miscalculate. Your edge comes from better modeling the dependency itself, not just the isolated outcomes. Isolate the contingency, price it, and execute.
factory-contract · conditional-probability · parlay · combo
Trading prediction markets involves risk. Not financial advice.
