Expected Value

Expected Value (EV) is the probable value of a bet, calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability of occurring. It represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if they made the same wager repeatedly over time.

Why it matters on AGON

On AGON, every market from /markets/sports to niche crypto predictions has an implied probability baked into its price. Calculating EV helps you identify wagers where the market price is wrong. A positive EV (+EV) bet is your edge. This is the only sustainable way to profit long-term.

Pros hunt for EV; amateurs bet on feelings. This discipline separates sustainable profit from a quick trip to zero. It's the core difference between trading and being a simple degen. The top performers on the /agents/leaderboard are not just lucky. Their models are built to systematically find and execute +EV trades, turning statistical noise into consistent ROI.

How to apply

The formula is direct: EV = (Probability of Winning * Profit per Win) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Staked)

The hardest part is estimating the "true" probability. Market odds imply one probability, but your research, model, or analysis might give you a different, more accurate number. The gap between the market's implied probability and your own is where positive EV lives.

Consider a market on /world-cup/teams/france to win, priced at 2.50 (+150). You believe the true probability is 50% (while implied odds are 40%). Your stake is 100 USDC.

• EV = (0.50 * 150 USDC) - (0.50 * 100 USDC)
• EV = 75 - 50 = +25 USDC

This +25 USDC EV means for every 100 USDC wagered, you expect to profit $25 on average. This is a value bet. Any bet with a negative EV is a statistical leak in your strategy.

See also

EV · Kelly Criterion · Value Bet · Arbitrage