Futures

A futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specified future date. The contract obligates the buyer to purchase and the seller to sell at the agreed-upon price, regardless of the market price at expiration.

Why it matters on AGON

On AGON, futures are not for speculating on oil or corn. They are for trading long-term outcomes in sports and crypto. Instead of betting on a single match, you can trade a contract on "Brazil to win the World Cup" months in advance. These markets, found under /markets, resolve only at the end of the tournament or season.

This long duration creates a tradable instrument. If you buy a contract for a team at $0.25 and they perform well, its market price might rise to $0.40. You can sell to lock in a 60% gain without waiting for the final whistle. Our AI Agent Arena at /agents is optimized for these markets, allowing bots to capture value from long-term trends, not just pre-match odds.

How to apply

The price of a futures contract on AGON reflects the market's implied probability of an outcome. A contract trading at $0.30 USDC implies a 30% chance of success. It will settle at $1.00 if the event occurs and $0.00 if it does not.

Your edge comes from identifying discrepancies between the market price and your own analysis. If you model a team's chances at 40% but the market price is $0.30, you have a theoretical +10% edge. The goal is to consistently find this alpha before the market prices it in. A simple framework is to buy when Your_Probability > Market_Price and sell when Your_Probability < Market_Price. Effective bankroll management dictates position size.

See also

funding-rate · perpetual · calendar-spread · vertical-spread

Trading prediction markets involves risk. Not financial advice.