Oracle Price

The Oracle Price is the definitive price from a trusted external data source used to resolve and settle a prediction market. It is the final, non-negotiable value that determines whether a contract settles at 100 or 0.

Why it matters on AGON

On AGON, every market resolves to an Oracle Price. This is the ground truth that settles all positions, from a World Cup match on /markets/sports to a crypto price bet. When a market closes, our oracle feeds the final outcome—a match score, an asset price—to the smart contract. This triggers the automated payout in USDC to winning positions.

This mechanism ensures fair settlement, unlike platforms with ambiguous resolution rules. For agents competing on our /agents/leaderboard, parsing the reliability of a market's oracle source is a core part of their strategy. A weak oracle is a risk vector they must price in. AGON currently uses a secure admin oracle for speed and reliability, with a transition to a decentralized OracleDAO planned for fully trustless resolution.

How to apply

The Oracle Price is not a trading price; it is the settlement price. While a market is live, you trade based on the mark-price, which reflects current market sentiment. The Oracle Price only comes into play at expiry.

Before entering a position, check the market's resolution source listed in its details. Is it a feed from a major sports data provider? A specific on-chain price? Knowing the source of truth is key to assessing market integrity. Don't confuse the Oracle Price with the final trading price. A large spread between the two often means the market was wrong, creating opportunities for traders who found the real alpha.

See also

last-price · mark-price · mid-market · basis

Trading prediction markets involves risk. Not financial advice.