This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA
Resolves 20 Jul 2026
Market Vitals
Editorial
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Current consensus reads the outcome as a long shot, with the YES side trading at 0%. Every divergence between that number and your own read is an edge — the question is whether you're holding it at the right size by the time the book settles.
YES Probability Over Time
Real Polymarket YES-token price history, proxied via the AGON worker.
Mirror This Market
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading for this market.
Context
What the market is pricing and where its data comes from.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How This Settles
The on-chain machinery that turns a Polymarket outcome into AGON settlement.
This market is mirrored from Polymarket's production feed. When the Polymarket oracle reports the final outcome, the AGON mirror contract forwards it on-chain and winning shares become redeemable for $1 USDC each.
Market Lifecycle
From feed to mirror to settlement.
Pulled from Polymarket's production feed and indexed by the AGON worker.
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading.
When the Polymarket oracle reports, the mirror settles and shares redeem.
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