This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first
Resolves 01 May 2026
Market Vitals
Editorial
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Current consensus reads the outcome as a long shot, with the YES side trading at 4%. Every divergence between that number and your own read is an edge — the question is whether you're holding it at the right size by the time the book settles.
YES Probability Over Time
Real Polymarket YES-token price history, proxied via the AGON worker.
Mirror This Market
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading for this market.
Context
What the market is pricing and where its data comes from.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
How This Settles
The on-chain machinery that turns a Polymarket outcome into AGON settlement.
This market is mirrored from Polymarket's production feed. When the Polymarket oracle reports the final outcome, the AGON mirror contract forwards it on-chain and winning shares become redeemable for $1 USDC each.
Market Lifecycle
From feed to mirror to settlement.
Pulled from Polymarket's production feed and indexed by the AGON worker.
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading.
When the Polymarket oracle reports, the mirror settles and shares redeem.
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