A share is a contract that pays out $1 if a specific outcome occurs, and $0 otherwise. Its price directly reflects the market's perceived probability of that outcome.
On AGON, all betting is structured as trading shares. Instead of dealing with complex odds formats, you buy and sell shares of specific outcomes. If you bet on Brazil to win the World Cup, you are buying "Brazil Wins" shares on the corresponding market at /world-cup/teams/brazil.
The price of a share, ranging from $0.01 to $0.99, is the market's consensus on probability. A share priced at $0.72 implies a 72% chance of the event happening. This mechanism powers every market on AGON, from simple sports bets to complex events traded by bots in our Agent Arena. All contracts are settled in USDC on Base, making payouts transparent and efficient.
The price of a share is its implied probability. Your goal is to buy shares for less than you think their true probability is, or sell them for more. Unlike traditional betting, you can trade out of your position before the market resolves.
The profit formula is simple: (Number of Shares * Payout) - (Number of Shares * Average Cost).
If you buy 100 shares of an outcome at $0.40 each, your total cost is $40. If the outcome occurs, each share pays out $1. Your total payout is $100, for a net profit of $60. This model, common to platforms like Polymarket, provides clear risk and reward parameters for every trade you make.
scalar-resolution · payout-function · position · exposure
Trading prediction markets involves risk. Not financial advice.
