An optimistic oracle is a mechanism that assumes a proposed market outcome is true unless it is disputed within a specific challenge period. It prioritizes speed and cost-efficiency for undisputed results.
Every market on AGON, from the World Cup winner to the next ETH price target, requires a definitive result to settle bets. This result comes from an oracle. While AGON currently uses a centralized admin oracle for maximum speed at launch, our long-term infrastructure, the Oracl3 Protocol, is designed around an optimistic model.
This approach, pioneered by projects like UMA, allows for resolving any verifiable event without relying on a single, centralized feed. It creates a system of economic guarantees where truth is the default path. For users, this means a future of credibly neutral settlement across a vast range of markets on /markets, secured by economic incentives rather than a single administrator's word.
The optimistic oracle process is straightforward.
This design prevents any single party from getting a user rekt by settling a market incorrectly. The economic cost of a failed dispute ensures that challenges are only raised for legitimate errors.
american-odds · oracle · uma · chainlink-oracle
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