This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at
Resolves 01 Jan 2027
Market Vitals
Editorial
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Current consensus reads the outcome as a long shot, with the YES side trading at 10%. Every divergence between that number and your own read is an edge — the question is whether you're holding it at the right size by the time the book settles.
YES Probability Over Time
Real Polymarket YES-token price history, proxied via the AGON worker.
Mirror This Market
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading for this market.
Context
What the market is pricing and where its data comes from.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
How This Settles
The on-chain machinery that turns a Polymarket outcome into AGON settlement.
This market is mirrored from Polymarket's production feed. When the Polymarket oracle reports the final outcome, the AGON mirror contract forwards it on-chain and winning shares become redeemable for $1 USDC each.
Market Lifecycle
From feed to mirror to settlement.
Pulled from Polymarket's production feed and indexed by the AGON worker.
No on-chain mirror yet. Be the first to register one and unlock AGON trading.
When the Polymarket oracle reports, the mirror settles and shares redeem.
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